Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader

Sunday, 23 April 2017

North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier - North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier


North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier

"North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier" 

in the news North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw on Sunday north korea was ready to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier to demonstrate its military might, as two Japanese navy ships joined a U.S. carrier group for exercises in the western Pacific.

U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to sail to waters off the Korean peninsula in response to rising tension over the North's nuclear and missile tests, and its threats to attack the United States and its Asian allies.

The United States has not specified where the carrier strike group is as it approaches the area. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday it would arrive "within days" but gave no other details.

North Korea remained defiant.

North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier
North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier


"Our revolutionary forces are combat-ready to sink a U.S. nuclear powered aircraft carrier with a single strike," the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the North's ruling Workers' Party, said in a commentary.

The paper likened the aircraft carrier to a "gross animal" and said a strike on it would be "an actual example to show our military's force."

The commentary was carried on page three of the newspaper, after a two-page feature about leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a pig farm.

North Korea will mark the 85th anniversary of the foundation of its Korean People's Army on Tuesday. It has in the past marked important anniversaries with tests of its weapons. North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, two of them last year, and is working to develop nuclear-tipped missiles that can reach the United States.

It has also carried out a series of ballistic missile tests in defiance of United Nations sanctions.



North Korea's growing nuclear and missile threat is perhaps the most serious security challenge confronting Trump. He has vowed to prevent the North from being able to hit the United States with a nuclear missile and has said all options are on the table, including a military strike.

North Korea says its nuclear program is for self-defense and has warned the United States of a nuclear attack in response to any aggression. It has also threatened to lay waste to South Korea and Japan.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Friday North Korea's recent statements were provocative but had proven to be hollow in the past and should not be trusted.

"We've all come to hear their words repeatedly, their word has not proven honest," Mattis told a news conference in Tel Aviv, before the latest threat to the aircraft carrier. Japan's show of naval force reflects growing concern that North Korea could strike it with nuclear or chemical warheads.

Some Japanese ruling party lawmakers are urging Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to acquire strike weapons that could hit North Korean missile forces before any imminent attack. Japan's navy, which is mostly a destroyer fleet, is the second largest in Asia after China's.

The two Japanese warships, the Samidare and Ashigara, left western Japan on Friday to join the Carl Vinson and will "practice a variety of tactics" with the U.S. strike group, the Japan Maritime Self Defence Force said in a statement.

The Japanese force did not specify where the exercises were taking place but by Sunday the destroyers could have reached an area 2,500 km (1,500 miles) south of Japan, which would be waters east of the Philippines.

From there, it could take three days to reach waters off the Korean peninsula. Japan's ships would accompany the Carl Vinson north at least into the East China Sea, a source with knowledge of the plan said.

U.S. and South Korean officials have been saying for weeks that the North could soon stage another nuclear test, something the United States, China and others have warned against. South Korea has put is forces on heightened alert.

China, North Korea's sole major ally which nevertheless opposes Pyongyang's weapons programmes and belligerence, has appealed for calm. The United States has called on China to do more to help defuse the tension.

Last Thursday, Trump praised Chinese efforts to rein in "the menace of North Korea", after North Korean state media warned the United States of a "super-mighty preemptive strike.



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Thursday, 20 April 2017

War Is Hell - but Not for The Stock Market


War Is Hell—but Not for The Stock Market

"200 years of US interest rates in one chart" 

War Is Hell—but Not for The Stock Market? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw something interesting in that The stock market tends to rally whenever the U.S. begins military operations overseas.

Does that mean that investors prefer war? Not exactly. But they positively abhor uncertainty, and that’s what typically characterizes the market environment in the weeks prior to the U.S. military becoming involved in a foreign military operation.

Much of that uncertainty gets resolved soon after U.S.-led hostilities begin, and that’s why the stock market typically soars in response.

This interaction between the stock market and uncertainty is key to understanding what’s going on now, with the markets struggling over the past couple of weeks in reaction to U.S. saber-rattling directed at North Korea and Syria. The Dow Industrials are 2.6% below where they stood on March 6, which is when North Korea launched four missiles into the Sea of Japan.

That uncertainty appeared to lessen this past weekend with the failed North Korean missile launch, though it quickly returned: Vice President Mike Pence said in a speech in South Korea that the era of “strategic patience” with North Korea was over, and a White House official was quoted to the effect that Trump was considering a “kinetic” action—including a sudden strike—against that country.

On average over the month prior to the beginning of these seven events, the Dow fell 0.6%, or 1.4 percentage points lower than the average of all months since 1983 (see chart). But this underperformance was quickly reversed: In the month after the U.S. military entered a conflict, the Dow soared an average 4.0%—3.2 percentage points greater than the average of all months since 1983.. This is quite interesting. 





This appears to have been a factor during the 2001 war in Afghanistan, which began less than a month after the Sept. 11 attacks. Even though the Dow had fallen more than 8% over the month before that war began, and even though that war took place during the 2000-2002 bear market and the associated deflation of the dot-com bubble, the Dow still gained 11.9% over the six months following the beginning of that war.

We aren’t aware of any particular sector bets that might make sense as a way of exploiting the market’s tendency to perform well when the U.S. military becomes engaged in foreign operations. Insofar as lower volatility is the underlying cause, then we should expect to see that improved performance throughout the market’s various sectors and investing styles. This would be why, for example, both large- and small-cap stocks experienced improved performance.

An important qualification is in order. Notice, for example, that each of the past military operations on which we base our analysis were discrete events with well-defined beginning dates. My findings would not apply to more diffuse military operations that are long, drawn-out, and often conducted in secret—such as the so-called War on Terror.

If the U.S. response to North Korea follows such a pattern, then investors shouldn’t bet on any particular stock market reaction one way or another.

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Wednesday, 19 April 2017

Is The bull market coming to an end - Is The bull market coming to an end


Is The bull market coming to an end

"Is The bull market coming to an end" 

Is The bull market coming to an end? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader After the US election and Donald Trump getting elected, and investors watching the market skyrocket to new highs in a matter of weeks. Is this all just a false rally? And is the bull market finally coming to an end? 
These are very interesting questions. We have just witnessed a rally we have not seen in over 40 years. Its quite historical. Mix that with the stock market, very close to the 20,000 level on the DOW, a level many top wall st traders say is a very psychological level. 

The Stock market is not the only huge rally we are seeing, the US dollar is up 20% in a few months, after the fed decided to hike interest rates by a quarter point, and upped its forecast for the 3 hikes in 2017. That means, we could be looking at the very beginning of interest rates lows, and before we start to see the fed hike rates over the next few years. 


Many top analysts feel that stock traders have been looking over the shoulders recently at bond yields, fearing bond devils run rates up so much that the stock market gains are now going to be choked off. Still even though the stock market has had a few down days, the momentum still seems to be on the upside. It seems buying momentum has not slowed down at all. 

The market may be on the move, but some strategists on wall st are saying this Trump rally is getting a little bit long in the tooth, and telling their members that stocks cannot keep going up in a straight line for months on end. Eventually we have to pause or even seeing some sort of correction. 

Let’s be honest, that the speed of this rally on the stock market has not only been historical, it’s been a little surprising. So in a way, there are certainly risks to the upside when you look at the stock market, and where have come from, and where we are right now. It’s probably much better to wait until Donald Trump is sitting in his chair in the Whitehouse giving orders, and to see how some of his fiscal policies are going to be implemented in 2017. 


If Donald Trump cannot deliver on some of his promises, this is not only going to be very bad, it’s going make investors feel uncertain, and when investors get nervous and feel uncertain about the economy or the stock market, that is usually a clear sign they will want to sell, and it will obviously put a stop to the current bull market rally. So at this stage of the race, its probably a wise move not to get excited here. 

Normally when people get excited and start selling their house, car and kids to get long the market, that is a sign they are too late to the party, and you might want to take notice of this too, so you do not get caught up in too much of the hype yourself. 

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