Web Statistics March 2016

Monday 28 March 2016

‘Rich Dad’ author says the 2016 market collapse he foresaw in 2002 is coming



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‘Rich Dad’ author says the 2016 market collapse he foresaw in 2002 is coming



‘Rich Dad’ author says the 2016 market collapse he foresaw in 2002 is coming

From : Marketwatch.com

Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.

Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki — who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” — says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silverand hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.

Kiyosaki is convinced: The pullback he predicted is happening.

“We’re right on schedule,” he said in a recent interview with MarketWatch.

A market destined to collapse

Investors are seven years into a bull market some fear is getting a bit long in the tooth, with the Dow industrials DJIA, +0.08%  and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.04% SPX, -0.04% up 0.9% and 0.3%, in 2016. That’s after 2015 saw major U.S. indexes snap multiyear winning streaks amid falling commodity prices, concerns about economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s December decision to raise interest rates.

In 2002, Kiyosaki wrote that the stock market would crash in 2016 as the first wave of baby boomers began to hit 70 1/2 in 2016 and started taking required-by-law distributions from traditional individual retirement accounts.

He still believes that: “Demography is destiny,” he said in the interview.

rich dad photo
rich dad photo


According to U.S. Census Bureau data, more than 76 million individuals were born between 1946 and 1964; researchers at the Population Reference Bureau determined in 2014 that 65 million of them were still living. After immigrants are added in, according to that 2014 report, the number of living U.S. baby boomers was back above 76 million.

A market meltdown could imperil those boomers’ retirement plans, taking a badly timed bite out of hard-earned balances in their retirement accounts. And while the sheer number of aging boomers could contribute to stock-market selling pressure, Kiyosaki said, the larger issue today is that it’s hard for investors to figure out where to put money.

“Interest income or cash flow on savings is virtually nonexistent, and capital-gains plays in the stock market are thwarted because stock prices are at record highs,” he said.

Whatever burden millions of boomers might put on the market, he said, the situation is being made worse by events overseas, where one big country is wielding the monkey wrench.

“China has been in a bubble for 20-something years,” said Kiyosaki. “It has propped up the U.S. economy falsely. When [China] stops importing, the world crashes with them.”

Down the China rabbit hole.

First to go, Kiyosaki said, will be commodity producers like Australia, Canada and African countries, which will drag down the rest of the world’s economies.

The collapse in oil prices has been particularly tough for economies such as Australia’s. The S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -1.13% down 14% over a 12-month period, suffered its first annual decline in four years last year. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.73% meanwhile, has cratered, sliding nearly 15% in three months after earning the title of Asia’s best-performing stock market in 2015 with a gain above 9%.

Market watchers are largely divided about the outlook for China, though every piece of negative data raises new questions about the country’s ability to drive global economic growth. Recent data showed Chinese exports down 25.4% from a year earlier; economists had forecast a drop of 15%. It was the eighth consecutive decline in exports.

Read: China may swap ‘zombie’ companies for ‘zombie’ banks

Kiyosaki is hardly alone in his bearish view: The “high” probability of a “sharp economic slowdown“ in China was cited in mid-March as a top global risk by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Its concerns included a buildup of bad debt in the country, a weak currency and worries that the government may not be able to shore up its economy.

And ballooning government debt was a key reason Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on China’s credit rating in March, also citing money fleeing the country.

Kiyosaki, who has written or co-written more than two dozen books — including New York Times best seller “Rich Dad Poor Dad” — has built a fortune mostly on real estate and authorship, rather than the stock market. (His licensing company, Rich Global LLC, has filed for bankruptcy and is being sued by a seminar promoter in connection with that filing. A spokesman said Kiyosaki “has the money to withstand an adverse ruling” and expects the case to be settled this year.)

Forbes estimated Kiyosaki’s worth at $80 million in 2012, a figure he declined to address.

But from the outside looking in, he said, investors are ignoring danger signs. The next crash, he said, could have a harsher effect on the economy than the market crashes that have occurred so far in the 21st century.

Those crashes included the market rout that ended the dot-com boom in 2000, which erased $5 trillion in market value between March 2000 and October 2002, and the financial crisis of 2007-08, which inspired both a market collapse and a real estate bust. Better Markets, a nonprofit pro-financial-reform watchdog, has estimated that the final price tag for the 2007-08 crash will exceed $20 trillion in lost gross domestic product.



Kiyosaki said two key factors have emerged since he wrote “Rich Dad’s Prophecy”: the likelihood of a bust in China and the “insanity” of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve’s controversial multibillion-dollar bond-buying program, which ended in 2014 amid criticism that it had increased demand for risky investments even as supporters said it sustained economic growth.

Meanwhile, China has been throwing money at its banks to keep lending going, and debt quality at financial institutions is a constant theme among worried onlookers. Kiyosaki said he is in the camp that fears Chinese banks will be at the forefront of the next crash.

Waiting for the Fed’s fire hose

Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy.

The Fed turned more dovish at its March meeting, with the central bank penciling in fewer interest-rate hikes this year than were previously part of its implied framework. The Fed signaled those hikes would happen more slowly than had been anticipated earlier, owing to a weak global economic environment and a volatile stock market.

“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”

For baby boomers beginning to withdraw funds from the stock market, he said, another round of quantitative easing, or QE, might be a particularly welcome occurrence.

If Janet Yellen “even hints” about such fresh stimulus, Kiyosaki said, he’d be ready to go back into he stock market himself, if only for a short time. Money left in the bank in an ultra-low-rate environment — a big topic as central banks in Japan and the European Union have bitten the negative-rate bullet — returns nothing for savers, he noted.

And for the Fed another round of quantitative easing “could be the last time they pull this stunt,” in Kiyosaki’s view. “The markets might rally, then crash.”

Opinion: Don’t rule out the possibility of Fed quantitative easing (part four)

Because preparing for that coming storm is vital, Kiyosaki often invokes investors to “build a financial ark.”

He thinks investors should own some gold or silver, based on the view that central banks will just have to print money to get out of the next crisis and precious metals are often deployed as a perceived hedge against inflation. Some investors, meanwhile, might look for investments geared toward income, such as rent payments or dividends, rather than appreciation.

“If you know what you’re doing and are investing for cash flow, baby boomers — or any investors — may see some gains,” he said. “But for those whose wealth is tied up in the [equity] markets, it’s more like gambling than investing.”



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Monday 21 March 2016

should you buy gold



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should you buy gold ?


Should you buy gold
Should you buy gold



should you buy gold ?

Should you buy gold - One of Wall Street's most respected forecasters says the market's rally is in trouble, and that investors are likely to do better by betting on gold. That is why we had to cover the daily chart above that goes all the way back to 2013. After years of bearishness, is gold starting to come out of the wood, and beat on its hairy chest..screaming "I AM BACK!"

The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 Index have staged dramatic comebacks from their lows, erasing or nearly erasing their losses for the year. In fact, the Dow's rebound may prove to be its best intraquarter rebound since 1933. That is quite impressive, for sure, but its seems that the bounce does not lack liquidity, meaning its basically novice traders caught short, and forced to cover their trade.

We would not be surprised if that the strong run may in fact be in jeopardy. It has many investors on edge, and smart money is staying away now we are back at the highs. But what is being talked about now, with a huge breakout move is gold. And the move could just be getting started. [See chart above]

That is, the popular trade of being long momentum stocks against a short position on the S&P 500 is being unwound. You can see it on the charts, but gold is another one that is taking our fancy at the moment.  Since the market bounce has been largely driven by re positioning, he sees little reason for it to continue in a meaningful way. You can literally see that the VOLUME that has been driving stocks the last few months, has not been strong at all. In fact its safe to say, its quite alarmed to see the price turn up so violently and not be backed up by FRESH money or LARGE volume at the same time. That is a bit of a warning sign our analysts think.


While the market has been basically trading inside a violent sideways range, what has been talked hot on the lips of astute investors is GOLD! investors should stick with the defensive gold trade right now, even after the recent surge in prices.  The Federal Reserve's more dovish policy outlook "should put some downward pressure on the dollar and hence should be supportive of gold." Well that makes more sense to us at the moment. Plus the fact that YELLEN keeps talking about inflation starting to creep in. In the past GOLD has always performed very well in an inflationary environment. In addition, the rising chance of Donald Trump's becoming the next president could also be bearish for the dollar, given the restrictive trade measures he has proposed, such as large tariffs against Chinese goods. "Generally, the U.S. dollar could be under some pressure if you have these types of policies,"

So trump, will probably get the nomination, but our studies suggest that HILLARY CLINTON will become the next president of the United State, and the first ever female as well.  Hopefully she gives Mr Trump the tongue lashing, he has been dishing out to everyone else. But back to the markets, if Trump was to win, that would be sour for the economy and stockmarket, and good for gold. 

Hillary would be a much more soothing tone for the markets, but the election results are many moons away right now. 

But fundamentals do not mean so much right now, you can see clearly on the charts, we are in the midst of a huge BREAKOUT to the upside, with supported volume. It seems the longer term investors are coming back in droves here. So it goes without saying, this could be a trigger for much more buying pressure and breakouts to the upside in the longer term also. Time will tell. 



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Sunday 13 March 2016

freeport-mcmoran copper & gold - freeport macmoran chart



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freeport-mcmoran copper & gold - freeport macmoran chart ?


freeport macmoran chart
freeport macmoran chart


freeport-mcmoran copper & gold - freeport macmoran chart

freeport-mcmoran copper & gold - freeport macmoran chart is an intersting look right now. You can see the daily chart above!

We have been watching this chart for months, because, when you look around its definitely one of the most hated stocks on Wall Street is surging this year.

Freeport-McMoRan is among the top stocks in the S&P 500 Index with the highest short interest on the street, yet shares are up more than 40 percent in 2016. That makes it the fourth-best performing stock in the large-cap index.

There has been dramatic and recent turnarounds in oil and copper, which have rallied 50 percent and 16 percent from their respective 52-week lows. Despite being despised by many, Freeport's commodity-driven stock has recently caught our eye because some of the technical are screaming out at us, and it could be hinting and winking about what is on the cards for later this  year.

We doubt this game with the Fed will continue! Its not really going to last,  this monetary divergence relative to the Central Banks, If the Fed has no choice does not remain accommodative all hell will break loose!!!. That's could put pressure on the dollar and put the commodities space in play to upside. So far its looking good, but things will need to hold if it wants to keep its conviction.


According to Gordon, Freeport-McMoRan could be one of the main beneficiaries from this upturn, and the stock could be on the verge of an even bigger breakout when you look at the chart above and calculate some of the technicals.

The downtrend for Freeport has been broken, and we are clearly moving to the upside, and if crude has bottomed here, the only way is UP, if we were to look forward into SEPT and OCT later this year.

We  could witness the $14 region, if things continue along the projected path.


freeport-mcmoran has busted out of its downtrend, and you can see that its not just prying its head above, its a convincing break out. The next target would be back at the 14 dollar highs. If we see that play out, then you could really see the buying start to accelerate as investors start to see this as being one of those undervalued stocks, and everyone will want to jump on the bandwagon, by then, it might be too late, so that is why we are bringing it to the attention of our readers right now. A nice chart, with the technicals just getting better and better. Some caution is needed, but this chart should be on your watchlist for the remainder of 2016. 



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Sunday 6 March 2016

trading vix- volatility index chart



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trading vix- volatility index chart ?


trading vix- volatility index chart
trading vix- volatility index chart



trading vix- volatility index chart

Vix Analysis : When we look at trading the VIX chart above, right now you can see the VIX has stopped at the 18 level. We think this is quite significant because if you look back, that means it has stopped at a very important level, or the rising support line that goes all the way even back to JULY 2015.

2015 was not a good year for the stockmarket, and hated by lots of traders, however, if you were able to chart the VIX momentarily over the last 24 month, it would have made things alot more clearer and even in a volatile and tricky market, you could time your entries and exits better.

That leads us to the next question, is now the TIME TO BUY OR SELL? Looking at trading vix or the volatility index chart [above]

Well, what we can say is that 18 is a significant level, and with the ECB announcement this week, we can definitely expect more volatility to show up MID WEEK around the announcement time. That is very important and some of the bigger traders on wall st are waiting with baited breath on the decisions on what they will do with the interest rates in EUROPE, and we think that is a market moving event, going forward.

On a more technical level, we are now sitting at significant support, and the VIX is trying to sort out a direction with conviction, so in other words, we are sort of in a make or break AREA. Break down severely here, and the stock market rally that has been going on for a few weeks now will  most likely continue. But if we find potential support and VIX sees some more heavy buying at this area, like it normally does, the we will see the VIX up and the STOCK MARKET start to come off, [experience some selling] or at the least, we will witness one of these types of situations.

All in all, we still think you have to be watching VIX, and CRUDE also in this market. Its all about these vehicles right now. They are not only significant but important in the 2 weeks ahead. 

As analysts, Its astounding to us that we have rallied about 80 points on on SPX alone in the last week or so. That is pretty staggering and mind blowing to us,  considering the market is still under pressure from china, and the problems that still occupy the US.  Does this sort of a move have conviction?? Well it's certainly not backed up by FRESH BUYING and HEAVILY volume, and for us that could be a bit of a warning sign for the weeks ahead. Time will tell. 



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