Web Statistics 2017

Sunday, 21 May 2017

the financial sector - financial sector analysis


the financial sector - financial sector analysis

"the financial sector - financial sector analysis" 

in the news the financial sector - financial sector analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see A domino effect from the bond market could lead to a correction in stocks. We will see.... There are no guarantees with this stuff. 

U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near one-month lows and a significant move lower may trigger a correction in equities. First there is an important chart. 

Sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year.

The reflation trade centers around stocks that benefit from higher inflation and yields, including financials. Investors and traders have been betting that inflation will rise under Donald Trump's presidency as he moves to enact an agenda that includes lower corporate taxes and infrastructure spending.

The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF), which tracks the S&P financials sector, has been a stalwart since Trump's victory, rising more than 17 percent since Nov. 8. However you can see that the Chart is starting to depict a head and shoulders pattern, and which is seen in the books of the best technical analysts as not being a particularly strong chart pattern going forward. So it could be a bit of a warning sign shorter term.  



But the reflation trade has been under siege lately because of the decline in rates. The benchmark 10-year note yield has fallen from about 2.41 percent to 2.24 percent since May 10 and hit a one-month low on Wednesday. Financials, meanwhile, suffered their worst day since June 24 earlier this week on the back of the U.S. stock market's worst session of 2017.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday on news that former FBI Director James Comey put together a memo outlining a conversation in which Trump asked him to halt an investigation into Michael Flynn's ties with Russian officials. Flynn is Trump's former national security adviser.

Hunter noted that if yields fall, sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year, technology and consumer discretionary, "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year."

One could adopt a much more defensive bias if the market internals do not improve in the weeks ahead, the leadership groups start to form bearish momentum divergence patterns, and we are looking at certain levels as the market target zone this summer."

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Thursday, 18 May 2017

mexico is the new china


mexico is the new china

"mexico is the new china" 

in the news mexico is the new china? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader 

There are some analysts that say they are bullish on emerging markets, because they see alot of flows coming back to the market in those areas. Meaning some of the smart money is placing their chips there. However one of our analysts are saying is that the investors in 2017 are underestimating inflation. 

We think there is a bigger divergence in the market right now between official inflation as opposed to what is actually happening out there in the real world especially in the emerging markets.  overall inflation seems to be drifting higher, and it can have enormous consequences for all emerging markets, the way we see it. 

I can see that the Mexican stock market is under-loved, but still have relative strength and when you look at their stock market is actually broken out of a longer downtrend. 




We do not really share these charts on the blog, but we are in a giving mood, recently as some of our predictions have been playing out nicely over the last few months. We have not seen fresh money and fund flow into areas such as japan and china, but we do have a rather secret idea, because over the last 7 weeks, we have seen smart traders with big pockets start to move their pocket money to places such as MEXICO. Yes!  China has risen to fast, and we believe that MEXICO could be the next china.

Laugh if you will, but let us explain. Its 30% cheaper, but its quality control is in the American Standard. There have been other countries rely on Vietnam and Cambodia, and in the last 24 months we have seen manufacture leave china very rapidly and move to these countries in droves. 

Over the recent 12 months, we believe the mexico-Texas Midwest quarter, right now is the number one destination for capital flows for global markets right now. 

Even with the Donald Trump planning to build an almighty mexico wall, and even with other problems surrounding mexico with trump as president, why would we tell people about this? 


The answer is pretty simple. With wages so cheap, and quality control so high, and their willingness to allow foreign investment, is much increased compared to the past. It makes for a very nice recipe we think in the coming 24 to 36 months, as we see it. This is one place to keep your eye on. 


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Tuesday, 16 May 2017

What Weak Volatility Means For Markets - What Weak Volatility Means For Markets


What Weak Volatility Means For Markets

"What Weak Volatility Means For Markets" 

in the news What Weak Volatility Means For Markets? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader wonders what does the Weak Volatility mean or say about the market. The current low volatility is the lowest we have seen in the most period of extended time... study the chart below....this has many people talking!! Also our clients. This is quite interesting. 




This is making some invesors nervous but from the peaks low volatility is actually GOOD for the stock market. From the most recent 52 week high, to the current low.

So what does this all mean, really?? That is what the bigger traders on wall st are talking about. Its not doubt that we are currently in a bull market, but is lack of a pullback in the stock market actually UNHEALTHY? 

Well, that could be the case, and the over the last 20 day ranges, the average pullback in the stock market right now with historically LOW vix is half of 1% and that is the lowest we have seen since 1993. 

The funny thing is, lots of retail traders out there are saying, that this just has to expand, and there for this sort of situation, including the low vix MUST BE BEARISH!?

But what you find time and time again, significant to market tops, is that the intraday trading ranges will EXPAND first as the market is still going up!!  

So very narrow daily trading ranges, and very low drawn downs that we are seeing at the moment, is not actually characteristic of a MAJOR STOCK MARKET top!... Its more characteristic of a strong healthy up trends. 

You saw this situation in the mid 1990's and then as you got into the last 1990's and towards the end of the bull market that is when you saw the ranges start to expand. The same thing occurred in 2004 and 2005 and then they did not really start to expand till 2007, just before the stock market CRASHED horrifically. 

Most investors will be quick to say LOW volatility means a stock market crash is coming....That could be the case but as market analysts, but what we are trying to point out is that if there was a real big sell off coming, you might be seeing a warning sign by the market, and very big large daily trading ranges first.

So far as we watch the market each day, we do not see many of those signs showing up on our screens. 

With the max drawdown we saw earlier this year of only 3% we could see something more like a 5% or 6% correction later in the year. That is very possible as the market is very overbought at these levels.

If history is anything to go by, you do not normally see big larger sell offs, and or crashes if you are in a solid uptrend and at the same time experience narrow daily ranges at the same time. For that to happen you would need to see larger volatile swings for weeks before that type of even was to occur. 


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Sunday, 14 May 2017

Death Of The Department Store - Death Of The Department Store


Death Of The Department Store

"Death Of The Department Store" 

in the news Death Of The Department Store? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has recently seen the retail sectors has gone through hell lately, but it is usually times like this is when people come up with the best ideas. We think the golden eras of the big bright department stores and malls are gone. But there still our some strong stores out there.Stores like nostrums and Macy's and these sorts of places.

It seems that recently retail is all about connecting with the custom or finding out who their customers are. In recent times, they have fallen short and forgotten that. So that is why we have seen some drama in these areas. Things like your presentation, your service, your value. ..


RETAIL SECTOR - or XRT

You can see that in the last 6 months the retail sector has gone from 48 all the way down to 42, wow. Something is a-miss. :-0

Death Of The Department Store

These days companies like amazon, are connecting with their customers in a very different and transactional way. The retail experience has completely transformed. The reason stores and retail departments have been talking about is sale, and generating sales. Even though some online retailers are doing well, they realize in the end, they have to have a physical presence. 

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Thursday, 11 May 2017

Stock Market Analysis May - Dow Jones Transports

Stock Market Analysis May - Dow Jones Transports

We have been watching dow jones transports for a while and is why we are a little hesitant. The transports chart is important and not many traders know you should watch it every day, as its deemed the leader of the market....

Here is the lastest analysis of the daily dow transports chart, with a pattern that could be sticking out, termed a HEAD AND SHOULDERS CHART!. 

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Tuesday, 9 May 2017

outperforming sectors - outperforming sectors


outperforming sectors

"outperforming sectors 

in the news outperforming sectors? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows the view of what has been happening in the stock market lately. You can see since trump got in, there have been sectors peforming poorly and sectors performing really well, but with the rapid advancement in IPODS, IPHONES and other tech gadgets, look what is happening to the tech sectors on the stock market. Its one of those outperforming sectors right now. 


a very interesting chart today. This chart shows the only place for interest rates to go from here is higher. Well that is of course a hypothetical, but we will explain below. 

Looking at a chart of U.S. interest rates over the last two centuries, you can see that a bottoming formation that has been in place for the last several years. It will bring with it, many opportunities. 

We've been looking at the process that we think has been taking place over the last six to eight years in our interest rates, and we think now that the 2012 low probably is going to prove to be the low just the way 1946 proved to be the low in the last cycle, Please take a look at the chart below, and note the historical data that does go all the way back to the 1800's. This is quite interesting. 


outperforming sectors





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Saturday, 6 May 2017

Shocking Bitcoin Prediction Was Correct

Our Shocking Bitcoin Prediction Was Correct!

We have gained a lot of media attention and excitement in the trading world, and we are proud to tell you that some of our members have created HUGE WEALTH in bitcoin lately. Keep reading......

Our Diamond Members just made 94% profit in 4 months on our secret bitcoin prediction   Yes +94% profit. These sorts of profits are unheard of. We released our alert back in December 2016. WOW. Here is our shocking video explaining our secret prediction and what is happening in bitcoin right now. Please Watch Our Live Webinar Presentation Below. 

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Thursday, 4 May 2017

Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below - Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below


Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below

"Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below" 

in the news Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw today that Oil prices struck a new 2017 low on Thursday as mixed U.S. stockpile data compounded bearishness that has permeated the energy complex in recent weeks.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $49 and international benchmark Brent breached $49, both sinking to the lowest level since Nov. 30, the day the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output.

Analysts said WTI could eventually decline to $42 now that it broke this key level..so far the chart of crude is hurting, and does not look pretty. This is quite interesting. 




The move lower came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much smaller-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories and another week of soft gasoline demand.

John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital, said there was no one headline moving oil on Thursday. Instead, he chalked it up to more technical trading.

"That $46 level ... is huge," so we will watch that.

On Tuesday, oil breached the previous week's low of $48.20, sparking a round of high-volume, late-afternoon selling.


Just before noon, U.S. crude broke through a major support zone flagged by Seaport Global Securities earlier in the day. The next critical level is $42.70.

Roberto Friedlander, head of energy trading at Seaport Global Securities, pointed to "terrible" demand for refined products, uncertainty around future oil consumption.

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Tuesday, 2 May 2017

bitcoin chart - bitcoin chart history


bitcoin chart - bitcoin chart history

"bitcoin chart - bitcoin chart history" 

in the news bitcoin chart - bitcoin chart history? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows bitcoin chart - bitcoin chart history

We have been telling our ==> members here <== shows To watch this cryptocurrency, and you can see how much we have busted out in recent times. Just days ago we were below 1300 and today we are now up over 100 to 1400 per bitcoin. This is quite incredible and its proof to see how much the world and the internet is changing...... Here is the daily chart, BREAKOUT TIME!!!



We know that ASIA has really seen the benefits here with major problems in the USD. The asian govt have tried to step in to stop people investing in this, and to stop money laundering in bitcoin, but as you can see, that has not really worked that well. Its no doubt that BITCOIN is here to stay, and its starting to get massive media attention. Not to mention, its hot gossip between even teenagers on social media. WOW..... This is quite interesting. 




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Sunday, 30 April 2017

baltic dry index chart - baltic dry index chart


baltic dry index chart

"baltic dry index chart" 

in the news baltic dry index chart? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows the dry index chart here, you can see that its turned a bit, and that could mean a bit of trouble for the market, we are not here to say PANIC, but the macd [or the lower indicator on the chart has turn south] which means the baltic dry index has topped out for now. 

Since 2016 you can see that the major uptrend line has been holding quite well. So this is most likely to continue as we go along. 

Please have a look at the chart below. This is quite interesting. 


baltic dry index data baltic dry index news baltic dry index chart since 1985 baltic dry index 2016


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Thursday, 27 April 2017

netflix chart technical analysis - netflix chart technical analysis


netflix chart technical analysis

"netflix chart technical analysis" 

in the news netflix chart technical analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows our latest netflix chart technical analysis below.  

Wednesday's pullback in Netflix should have investors scrambling to buy the stock.

Netflix shares did dip less than 1 percent in early Wednesday trading, its first down day in the past five.

Once this chart breaks out, it might be smart to buy dips, as the rectangle channel has now broken out. 

The first thing is we can note is that the consolidation that lasted through feb, march, april, has now been cut to the upside, so The "bottom" of that rally was $110, with the top of the rally at around $142, a $32 could be a move forward in the right direction! Here is the chart. This is quite interesting. 




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Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Stock market to melt up in 2017


Stock market to melt up in 2017  

"Stock market to melt up in 2017  

in the news Stock market to melt up in 2017? What this all about..... See below. 

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A group of astute analysts say that stocks and commodities could melt up in 2017. And if that was to occur it could lead to a meltdown in 2018. The current melt up started in about 2015 back at the start of February, and they do expect there to be a bit of a correct before we see another leg up higher. 

They do explain that the stock market right now is in what could be called a eighth innings of a nine innings move. This can be lethal, and leave investors behind, but it can also create panic and a bit rounding top pattern latter on. 

There really is not reason to panic just yet, but this bull market seems to just keep chugging along without a care in the world. The reason melt up continues is that you get lots of novice investors who decide they are going to miss out and hop in, like lemmings one after the other. 

There could be some choppy periods in the meantime. BofA's year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2,300. It was just 30 points below that Monday.

It could be very rough and treacherous waters when Donald trump gets into the whitehouse. NO one knows what he is going to do. You have a businessman, who has never been in politics or the whitehouse running a country. That thought has investors very panicked and slightly on edge. 

The positive sign to that coin is that he is going to fix real estate, after the sub prime mess, and he is going to boost fiscal spending and pump money into infrastructure and jobs. All the while he is going to keep the cheap jobs out of America. Will that work? We do not know, but we will soon find out. That is probably going to be a positive for companies on the U.S. shore. And if that is going to be positive for them, and earnings go up, that means the stock market is likely to go up alongside it. 

A lot of the bigger hedges funds that did well in 2016 are positioned for the market to go up to new highs. Yet, the main concern with their constituents is that the stock market at the end of 2016, when trump won the elections, went up too high and too fast. 

As soon as trump gets in, we will find out if he wants to play with the big boys, or just cry and tweet all day long. At the end of the day, investors like the notion of a TRUMP led country, especially those in the financial and loans industries. If that can get the boost they need, that will only start to spill over into other areas, and be quite modest for investors and the stock market. 




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Sunday, 23 April 2017

North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier - North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier


North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier

"North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier" 

in the news North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw on Sunday north korea was ready to sink a U.S. aircraft carrier to demonstrate its military might, as two Japanese navy ships joined a U.S. carrier group for exercises in the western Pacific.

U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group to sail to waters off the Korean peninsula in response to rising tension over the North's nuclear and missile tests, and its threats to attack the United States and its Asian allies.

The United States has not specified where the carrier strike group is as it approaches the area. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Saturday it would arrive "within days" but gave no other details.

North Korea remained defiant.

North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier
North Korea says it's poised to strike US aircraft carrier


"Our revolutionary forces are combat-ready to sink a U.S. nuclear powered aircraft carrier with a single strike," the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the North's ruling Workers' Party, said in a commentary.

The paper likened the aircraft carrier to a "gross animal" and said a strike on it would be "an actual example to show our military's force."

The commentary was carried on page three of the newspaper, after a two-page feature about leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a pig farm.

North Korea will mark the 85th anniversary of the foundation of its Korean People's Army on Tuesday. It has in the past marked important anniversaries with tests of its weapons. North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, two of them last year, and is working to develop nuclear-tipped missiles that can reach the United States.

It has also carried out a series of ballistic missile tests in defiance of United Nations sanctions.



North Korea's growing nuclear and missile threat is perhaps the most serious security challenge confronting Trump. He has vowed to prevent the North from being able to hit the United States with a nuclear missile and has said all options are on the table, including a military strike.

North Korea says its nuclear program is for self-defense and has warned the United States of a nuclear attack in response to any aggression. It has also threatened to lay waste to South Korea and Japan.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Friday North Korea's recent statements were provocative but had proven to be hollow in the past and should not be trusted.

"We've all come to hear their words repeatedly, their word has not proven honest," Mattis told a news conference in Tel Aviv, before the latest threat to the aircraft carrier. Japan's show of naval force reflects growing concern that North Korea could strike it with nuclear or chemical warheads.

Some Japanese ruling party lawmakers are urging Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to acquire strike weapons that could hit North Korean missile forces before any imminent attack. Japan's navy, which is mostly a destroyer fleet, is the second largest in Asia after China's.

The two Japanese warships, the Samidare and Ashigara, left western Japan on Friday to join the Carl Vinson and will "practice a variety of tactics" with the U.S. strike group, the Japan Maritime Self Defence Force said in a statement.

The Japanese force did not specify where the exercises were taking place but by Sunday the destroyers could have reached an area 2,500 km (1,500 miles) south of Japan, which would be waters east of the Philippines.

From there, it could take three days to reach waters off the Korean peninsula. Japan's ships would accompany the Carl Vinson north at least into the East China Sea, a source with knowledge of the plan said.

U.S. and South Korean officials have been saying for weeks that the North could soon stage another nuclear test, something the United States, China and others have warned against. South Korea has put is forces on heightened alert.

China, North Korea's sole major ally which nevertheless opposes Pyongyang's weapons programmes and belligerence, has appealed for calm. The United States has called on China to do more to help defuse the tension.

Last Thursday, Trump praised Chinese efforts to rein in "the menace of North Korea", after North Korean state media warned the United States of a "super-mighty preemptive strike.



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