Web Statistics June 2017

Thursday, 22 June 2017

3 swing trading strategies that work


3 swing trading strategies that work 

"3 swing trading strategies that work " 

3 swing trading strategies that work? What this all about..... See below. 

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3 swing trading strategies that work ?  

First of all What is price action?

Swing traders look at price action as the art of looking at candles on their charts to determine the direction of a stock. Technical indicators can also be used, but mostly its about just looking at the price itself. 

Tip 1.  Identify support and resistance. 

If you can identify support and resistance levels in technical analysis you will realize this is the most important aspect to chart reading. How many traders pay attention to this. Well, the very good traders do!. Too many traders base their opinions on indicators such as Stochastics, MACD and other nonsense without realizing price pays, and the different levels of the chart are more important. 

Back 100 years ago, there was no such thing as indicators, and the top trader would go off the tap, and areas of support and resistance in the charts. In fact, this was the main reason technical analysis was born, as there is no other way to predict the price movements before they happened, but as soon as these terms were invented, it helped trader recognize familiar patterns, and enable them to trade and make consistent weekly profits without fancy software. 

Tip #2. Analyze the swing points

Swing points are often referred to as pivot points. These are the areas of a stock charts where important short term reversals take place. Not all these pivot points are created equal, so its mandatory that you base your decisions, on the most recent pivots points and not pivot points that occurred more than 12 years ago. 


Tip #3. Wide range candles are great. 

Wide range candles are candles that mark important changes in sentiment on every chart, and in many time frames. They market important points of price action where buyers and sellers disagree. They can often be used to mark important changes in a trend, or mark reversals. It’s a pattern that larger hedge funds or professional traders look for when watching and trading the markets. 

The reason this is a great thing to look out for a trader, is that in every time frame you can see the major reversals points, and it’s like a big green light for those traders who missed out on the initial major move. This is the point where a trader would then have the option or a second and third chance to get in

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Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Biotech breakout - biotech analysis


 Biotech breakout - biotech analysis

" Biotech breakout - biotech analysis" 

in the news  Biotech breakout - biotech analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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So while everyone is concentrating on how the market is topping when it is clearly not, you can see that HEALTHCARE or biotech finally made a new high as well today. Have a look at the chart below. So for the first time in 2 years this laggard sectors has finally made a new high. 

Even though tech recovered, it was one of the best areas or better performers of the market today. 

Remember, that the S&P is up 17% - 18% since then, but what sentiment trader is showing our [==> members here <==] is the classic and text book pattern of an ascending triangle which could be one heck of a set up. 

That being said, let us explain what could be the beginning of important catch up in terms of longer term charts. After two years of pausing consolidation you can see higher lows, and the break of resistance pointed out on the chart you see below. That could represent one hell of a set up. See the chart below. 

ascending triangle pattern

What usually happens when the market takes off, and people miss out on that, they double back and find things to play and usually that means areas that lag, and recently we would be safe to say that the BIOTECH areas have been lagging. That is all this is, and there is a lot of catch up potential, and little downside risk, as shown in the ascending triangle.   


Remember just a few years ago, the biotech sectors was actually the best performing areas of the market. And after a huge consolidation investors are seeing this as fair value again, and that is the reason for the resurgence here, and much interest among larger investors. 



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Sunday, 18 June 2017

stock market volatility index - how to read the vix index


stock market volatility index - how to read the vix index

"stock market volatility index - how to read the vix index" 

in the news stock market volatility index - how to read the vix index? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader notices that right now, almost no one is studying and talking about the VIX chart. So lets us get out of the gutter and talk about what is going on and what it could mean. 

2 of our top analysts think this chart is bearing the brunt of what could be called an OMINOUS WARNING SIGN.... what is that??

Well to cut a long story short our  - VIP MEMBERS HERE  -  have been doing very well this year, and we can tell you, whether you like it or not, the stock market is all about the VIX this years. Its the inverse to the stock market, so when vix goes DOWN, the market usually goes up. And visa versa. 

Recently not only is the VIX LOWER down, but you can see its staying down in very low lying areas. And be that as it may we have not had a HUGE VOLATILITY SPIKE for about 12 months. 

Now,.... if you are somewhat of a good investor and follow past trends, all this could be starting to add up, because low vix for over 12 months ....lets think back, that has not happened since 2007, when the stock market topped out and WE EXPERIENCED the global financial crisis and we experienced a HORRIFIC market crashes several months later in 2008. 

Here is the chart below. You can see they are suppressing the VIX here. 

Not only that, you can see that we have been in low periods even FRESH lows over the last few weeks, so this chart does need attention! This is quite interesting. 





Look, we are not saying this is going to cause a stock market crash in the next 4 weeks. But you need to bring this to the forefront of your mind. Usually when this sort of action happens in the VIX is not a very good omen, looking back over the last 50 years of history, on the charts!.

I guess time will tell this time around.....but we have marked out the different events that made the VIX spike up fast! It seems like a long time before we had a major event. Perhaps that some bad news is coming down the pipeline sooner than we expect...

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Tuesday, 13 June 2017

forecast for gold - gold chart analysis



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forecast for gold - gold chart analysis ?



forecast for gold - gold chart analysis
forecast for gold - gold chart analysis



forecast for gold - gold chart analysis

The Gold chart has taken our fancy as of late. We have been fortunate enough to have some rather VERY ACCURATE calls on gold as of late. = SEE HERE =

Right now what we are looking at is the gold chart, on the WEEKLY chart. These weekly charts are the most powerful we must tell you because the smart money, meaning institutes and fund managers always keep their eye on the longer term charts. [weekly & monthly timeframes]

Today lets take a closer look at what is happening to gold on a weekly time-frame. On the charts below you can see......

GOLD WEEKLY CHART!


1) At the end   you can see at (2) we basically created another HIGHER LOW point in the price of gold, and the price has been holding. This could be a significant LOW point now, where the price has recovered.  MAJOR HIGHER LOWS on gold usually lead to more higher prices. 

2) You can see the the MACD indicator, which is a great indicators for momentum and consensus of what other traders are doing, is still sitting on a WEEKLY BUY SIGNAL. Which is hinting further upside action could be seen in the months ahead!  

Lastly, over the last few MONTHS on gold its been basically forming what is called an ascending triangle formation. [a pattern seen as a more bullish pattern in terms of technical analysis] Since about JANUARY, so with that being the case look for a breakout to the upside, and be on alert if GOLD trades up close to the 1300 level. That would signal more buying coming in and could cause a very significant breakout. Take a look at the chart below. 

weekly gold chart
weekly gold chart

So this chart is quite powerful!!!

on the shorter term Gold steady as market awaits cues from Fed meeting

Gold traded mixed on Tuesday as most investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that should provide signals on the pace of monetary tightening.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, although investors will focus on any new hints on the pace of hikes this year and its assessment of the economy and inflation.


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Sunday, 11 June 2017

Why investors are turning to Asia - Why investors are turning to Asia


Why investors are turning to Asia

"Why investors are turning to Asia" 

in the news Why investors are turning to Asia? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see, that Growth is picking up in Asia, where equities are cheaper compared to the U.S.

We have had 12 great weeks on the market with many leading assets rising, and that has partly to do with very low levels of volatility globally. And when volatility is low, asia trades with benefits.  There is strong trade growth in asia with treasuries remaining sideways, plus the fact that every time TRUMP has a spart few minutes, he decides to start tweeting negatively about china and asia. So this is actually not hurting them, its only helping them get more exposure. 

Also with the fantastic run in the US, asia is comparatively cheaper, to the US stock markets. And of course growth is picking up in many of the leading assets too.  

There were two arguments coming into the start of the year, were high treasury yields, and the other one being the positive growth in Asia, because there is an ideology that Asia is usually seen as a laggard in terms of the US or European economies. But given the developments this year, growth in Asia has as surprising upside, both in macro and in the earnings space. So we saw that there are charts reflecting that, and here is one.....

CHECK OUT THE CHART BELOW, it seems to be in a steady up trending channel right now.....




Given that the markets are still sitting nicely, where is the most interest in Asia right now? That we think is the most important question.  Well there is still lots of growth in the emerging space or MSCI china. Those are hot on the lips of some bigger traders right  now and we thought we would pass on this information.  
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Thursday, 8 June 2017

The stock market has a problem that not many people are talking about


The stock market has a problem that not many people are talking about

"The stock market has a problem that not many people are talking about" 

in the news The stock market has a problem that not many people are talking about? What this all about..... See below. 

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Lots of people are calling for a crash this week, but we doubt that will come this week, but still small-cap stocks, is a group pointing to trouble ahead for the broader market. Lets take a look at the charts here. The SPX if flying high and looking pretty nice, but the signals from the RUSSELL are not the same. 

Stocks are one bad headline away from 5-7% drop! But we are not here to try to make you panic. 

If Trump's agenda is stalled, there are going to be problems for the market!.
However, some analysts are still pretty optimistic about U.S. equities. We believe right now investors should be cautious.

While the major market indexes have rallied to numerous all-time highs this year, small-cap stocks have been stuck in a bind. The Russell 2000-tracking ETF (IWM) may be up 3 percent year to date, but small caps have actually been caught in a tight range since December while large-cap stocks have left them behind.

Lets compare the SPX [S&P 500] to the Russell 2000 below....
   





This chart has left many smart traders with an "uneasy feeling," especially on a day like Tuesday when it seemed that only big-cap tech stocks were moving. The lack in movement from the small caps could suggest that the market rally may not be as broad based as investors think.

When small caps are NOT confirming where large caps are going, that's a problem, and that is why we decided to post about it today.

Since small caps are stuck in such a tight range, there might be other ways to trade this. ==> CLICK HERE TO GET SOME OF OUR IDEAS!


"[One could short the IWM], but we are concerned from a trading point of view, our ability to time the breakdown of this range, so that's a bit of a conundrum!  But none the less this chart is extremely important going forward. 

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Wednesday, 7 June 2017

How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze - How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze


How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze

"How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze" 

in the news How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze? What this all about..... See below. 
How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze


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Sentiment Trader sees The fidget-spinner trend keeps growing, and that could be good news for discount retailer Five Below. $five

Fidget spinners -- little rotating toys said to help increase your focus -- have taken off with kids in the last few months. Social-media data suggest the trend still has legs. In fact, the volume of social discussion around spinners is still accelerating, says Chris Camillo of TickerTags, a firm that analyzes social-media sentiment for potential stock impacts.

Up until recently, retailers have been fairly short on supply of the devices, which sell for a few bucks. Five Below is among a handful of big-name bricks-and-mortar stores where you can buy them.

How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze
How Investors Can Play the Fidget Spinner Craze


The goal for Five Below has always been to just get people in the door. “Once you get in the store, it’s a bit of a treasure-hunt environment, and it’s hard not to leave the store with a lot of things,” Camillo tells us. Shoppers are “going in for fidget spinners, but probably leaving with 10 other things.”

Yes, you can buy the spinners through Amazon and other online outlets, but Camillo says there’s “plenty of demand to go around.” He points to Twitter reports of lines forming outside Five Below stores, which typically get a few hundred in inventory at a time and sell out the same day. The company just started selling light-up spinners, a move that gives people a reason to return to the store, even if they already have regular spinners, Camillo says. Kids tend to want multiple kinds of the toy.

In the past, when trends have fallen within Five Below’s typical $1 to $5 price range, the company has benefitted. Management called out the impact of adult coloring books and Shopkins toys on sales in the past. This time around, Five Below looks to have two trends on its hands at the same time. Do-it-yourself slime, made using Elmer’s glue, is still popular with kids, Camillo says, though the trend is leveling off somewhat.

Both slime and spinners could show up in Five Below’s results for the most recent quarter, which ended in April. The company releases those on June 1.

Big Picture: Social-media mentions of fidget spinners are heating up, which could mean good news for Five Below.

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Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Historic Run For Tech Sector - Historic Run For Tech Sector


Historic Run For Tech Sector

"Historic Run For Tech Sector" 

in the news Historic Run For Tech Sector? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see right now, a Historic Run For Tech Sector 


As the nasdaq pumps itself up higher and holds, what we have found interesting, we are up 23 or 27 sessions, and we can tell you that when we look back to our charts, going right back the market has never ever done that before. We are living in very interesting times. But this next chart might take your fancy!?

Look at the XLK chart or the [ technology sector ]. What a fantastic chart!!! :-0 You can clearly see how this chart has been in an uptrend for many weeks now....[see below]

Historic Run For Tech Sector


I guess when you go and look back at history, there are 2 ways to look at this :-

1) The first you could think OH NO, this is dot com boom type stuff, sell everything, lets panic!!!!! 

Or 

2) the smart way to look at it, is MOMENTUM BEGETS MORE MOMENTUM, and its good news in the longer term we could be looking at more gains. 

So which is it? 

Well before we answer that we must admit, we have been witness to incredible momentum here. Have these bigger big cap, powerful technology companies  taken off. Yes! Of course. But its nothing like the growth and skyrocketing we saw back in 1999. What we are looking at is the facebooks, the apples, and other companies like nvidia have exploded higher, and represent 11% of the 22% gains in the nasdaq. So in other words the top 5 holdings. 

Its nothing short of incredible!!!

The question is will this continue? We think sure....at some pace, but in relative perspective you might be better looking at other pockets of the market, that are not gaining huge attention. 

Such sectors could be Utilities or finanicals, or even the transports, which have been lacking over the last several months. 

Will momentum go forward from here. Well, we would not bet against it, but as to reiterate, as a relative perspective point of view, there might be better value laying hidden in the market right now. 

A lot of this huge run in technology is based on earnings and revenue. Especially earnings growth. Earnings growth came in recently at about 12%, and that is what we can be expecting over the next 12 months. Valuations however, on a general basis are sitting at about 21 right now, which is looking a bit to expensive and overbought to us right now. But that does not mean we cannot go higher, of course. 


So all in all, we are following what the smart money is doing here. While they do not expect a 2008 type correction, they see valuations a bit [pricey] here and continue to be cautiously optimistic. 

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Sunday, 4 June 2017

How to cash in on Goldman's sell off - How to cash in on Goldman's sell off


How to cash in on Goldman's sell off

"How to cash in on Goldman's sell off" 

in the news How to cash in on Goldman's sell off? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows a chart we normally do not show on our BLOG here. [ Our PREMIUM MEMBERS HERE ] usually get access to our DAILY updates. 

But we thought we would share some analysis with our readers this week. 

After we warned of a DROP coming on GOLDMAN SACHS, that did actually arrive. You might have a bit of success looking out to the JULY Expiration, as there is a very important and major event around the earnings soon. So we are keeping a watch on that. The chart here is clearly showing us that this could be classic head and shoulders pattern on the chart! With the right shoulder forming as you read this post......

How to cash in on Goldman's sell off

As a side note, this is one of the worst performing stocks on the DOW, so that is why goldman sachs has grabbed our attention. And that could mean there is more downside coming very soon. When you look at the price action above in the nice chart we have drawn, the signs are starting to look ominous we think. 

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Thursday, 1 June 2017

stock market volatility index - vxx chart


stock market volatility index - vxx chart

"stock market volatility index - vxx chart" 

in the news stock market volatility index - vxx chart? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader is looking at the VIX chart and noticed some very interesting things. 

We feel the market right now seems complacent but stable. We even hit new highs today.....so Let us elaborate what we are talking about, we have probably had a very good start to the year. Over the last few weeks the market has topped out a little bit, but consolidating / in a sideways pattern.

Generally the markets are looking ok, but nothing has really crashed and burned, or fallen apart. So what we do want to take a look at is the VIX chart as you can see below.... Are things about to crash and burn and fall through the trap door like some out there are saying???

 Well, sure that is always a possibility. But if you look at the volatility index you can see it is extremely low right now signalling to investors are a little bit complacent but at the same time the level of the overall risk or a catalyst to cause problems is missing at the moment. So its hard to determine what is going to derail the markets in the midterm!! 

You can see that VIX is trying to break new lows at the moment, and is very very low. Right back down at the all time lows of support. We think this is very significant given the market has been volatile the last 12 months.....  




The vix has been highly talked about subject this year. If you go back before the 2008 stock market crisis you can see periods of steady growth and supported monetary policy always generated low volatility so in the broader historical context we do not think the vix here is unnaturally low. It just seems low considering where we have been coming from and when you zoom back 10 or 11 years!

Due to the high markets, we do not need to be super exotic here we think there will be opportunities in the broader equity markets and equity spaces, we talked about => to our members [HERE] <= As long as you are selective. Its not a time to play pin the tail on the donkey with stocks here. That might not end up very good.  
Whether you are looking at developed markets such as EUROPE or USA or JAPAN we do see opportunities across the board, and that is not just at the market level, but at the sector level as well. We have posted about this earlier in the year. We could still see markets run up from here, but overall we still do remain more on the cautious side. 

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